Leafs Gameday (October 13): Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Utah Mammoth Preview
The Toronto Maple Leafs have an opportunity to come out of a very tough first road trip of the year with points in all three games. They take on the Utah Mammoth tonight as one of sixteen games on the schedule, and it’s a game full of micro-storylines, fascinating returns, and an opponent they can’t take lightly.
Fast Facts
| Puck Drop | October 13th @ 9:00 p.m. Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT |
| Broadcast | TV: TSN 4 (Regional) Radio: TSN 1050 Online: Sportsnet+ |
| Gameday Odds (Market Typical) | Maple Leafs +133, Mammoth -158 Maple Leafs +1.5 -176, Mammoth -1.5 +148 Goal Line 6.5 (Over +148, Under -106) |
About the Maple Leafs (3-2-1)
The Maple Leafs come into this one feeling mixed but positive emotions given the goings-on in their road trip. On one hand, the team lost control of their game against Vegas and had several moments against Colorado where they looked a step behind being a true top-tier team. On the other hand, they still managed to get three points out of the two games, putting themselves in a good spot for what will probably end up as their toughest opponent lineup in a road trip this year.
Tonight will be one where they’ll want to bring their start in Vegas and their finish in Colorado together. I’m also interested to see what happens with their powerplay units, with Gavin McKenna’s instant success now potentially being challenged by a return to the Toronto lineup.
About the Mammoth (4-2-0)
It feels like the Mammoth have been building towards something for the past couple years, with their record improving every year since they were still in Arizona in 2021/22. Last year saw the organization make the playoffs for their first time in Salt Lake City and their first time overall since 2020, and while that experience only lasted six games, they put up a good fight against the eventual Western Champion Vegas Golden Knights.
This year, Utah have looked promising out of the gate, beating Chicago, Columbus, New Jersey, and Buffalo in an opening six-game schedule that saw them play four games on the road. They did suffer losses to the Rangers and Bruins, though they decidedly outshot both opponents. The Mammoth currently sit third in the NHL in Corsi (shot attempt) share at 57% and second in expected goal share at 63%, though the former is a more reliable measurement of play control at this stage of the sesaon.
While the Mammoth don’t have an all-world superstar, they have several strong pieces and a carry a high floor to their lineup, with even their bottom players being capable of at least surviving any matchup.
Projected Lineups
| Toronto Maple Leafs Lines | Utah Mammoth Lines |
|---|---|
| Kirill Marchenko – Auston Matthews – Jack Roslovic Easton Cowan – John Tavares – William Nylander Gavin McKenna – Nick Paul – Colton Sissons Brandon Duhaime – Teddy Blueger – Bo Groulx Jake McCabe – Darren Raddysh Morgan Rielly – Troy Stecher Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Nick Blankenburg | Clayton Keller – Nick Schmaltz – Lawson Crouse Kailer Yamamoto – Logan Cooley – Dylan Guenther Barrett Hayton – Vincent Trocheck – Anders Lee Jack McBain – Kevin Stenlund – Daniil But Mikhail Sergachev – MacKenzie Weegar Nate Schmidt – John Marino Dmitri Simashev – Andrew Peeke |
| Starting Goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky (1-2-1, 2.97 GAA, 0.907 SV%) Backing Up: Anthony Stolarz | Starting Goalie: Karel Vejmelka (3-1-0, 2.13 GAA, 0.907 SV%) Backing Up: Sebastian Cossa |
Toronto’s lines don’t look significantly different from Saturday at the moment. Chris Tanev is out and John Tavares is in, but otherwise, it’s a bit of a blend of the Vegas and Colorado lineups. Maybe JT gets the “new dad” bump here tonight and puts some points on the board.
What’s surprising to me when looking at the Utah lineup is that there’s still just enough here for this game to feel like a grudge match for John Chayka, who was previously the GM of the Arizona Coyotes. Given the team’s messy few years in the desert, a relocation, a GM change, and the general passage of time, you wouldn’t think there’d bemuch left from then. But sure enough, their entire top line and Barrett Hayton were all on that 2019/20 team.
Last Matchup
Toronto’s last game against Utah back in January was a bit of a stomping, and one that the Leafs would either rather forget or take as a reason for revenge. The Mammoth took them to the cleaners, opening the scoring three minutes in and continuing a steady flood of goals until there were three minutes remaining, running away with a 6-1 victory. Five of the six goals and all but three of the assists were picked up by returning players, while Toronto’s only tally was scored by Calle Jarnkrok.
Injuries Of Note
Chris Tanev left Saturday’s game with an upper-body injury and has been placed on injured reserve, which should mean we don’t see him for at least a week. It’s hard to say what exactly happened on the play to cause his injury, which makes it all the more worrisome, but that’s a bridge the team will have to cross when it comes.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson missed a practice for maintenance this week but appears to be good to go for tonight, and John Tavares appears to be back from dad duty.
Toronto Marlies legend Michael Carcone is the lone injury for the Mammoth. He suffered an upper body injury last week and is week-to-week.
Streaks Of Note
- If we include their Utah Hockey Club and Arizona Coyotes eras (and there’s really no reason not to), the Leafs are 5-5 against the Mammoth in their last ten games against them, dating back to January 2022. Five of those wins come in their last six games against them, with their most recent being the only loss.
- These have generally been pretty high-scoring matchups, with 7+ goals scored in six of their last nine games against each other.
- Nick Schmaltz leads the Mammoth with six goals in as many games, also tying Clayton Keller for the team lead in most points with eight. Schmaltz has scored in all but one of Utah’s games, with the exception being a 6-1 loss to Boston.
- Auston Matthews has points in his last four games, including nine points in his last three. Is that good?
- Dylan Guenther has points in the last four Toronto/Utah matchups. Karel Vejmelka has historically been good against the Leafs, posting a 0.915 SV% in seven games.
Early Thoughts
The Maple Leafs come into this game as underdogs and it makes sense – Utah is good, they’re the home team, and while Toronto continues to improve, they’re not controlling play in quite the same way to this point. To win they’ll likely need their high-end skill to open up the game once more, which would be a great impression to leave upon this road trip.
A little bit of “win it for the new boss” might be at play here too, especially with so few opportunities to get that “revenge win” on the schedule against an out-of-conference opponent.
It’s also interesting to think that this is going to be a rare case where the Leafs probably won’t be a high-profile matchup on a game night, with all 32 teams playing and this being at a middle-ground timeslot against a team who is still growing their attention base.
