Leafs Gameday: Long Island, Short Break
How an NHL team starts its season with a back-to-back is beyond me, but if anyone is going to do it, it may as well be the Toronto Maple Leafs. It could be exactly what the doctor ordered, too, as it gives them a chance to quickly turn the page from a season opener that fell a little flat. They’ll have to get past an opponent that has historically given them trouble, though, as they take on the New York Islanders on Wednesday evening.
Fast Facts
| Puck Drop | September 30th @ 7:30 p.m. Scotiabank Arena, Toronto |
| Broadcast | TV: None Radio: TSN 1050 Online: Amazon Prime |
| Gameday Odds (Market Typical) | Maple Leafs -120, Islanders +100 Maple Leafs -1.5 +195, Islanders +1.5 -240 Goal Line 6.5 (Over +110, Under -130) |
About the Maple Leafs (0-1-0)
Toronto’s start to their year got off on the wrong foot yesterday, as they fell 3-2 to the Montreal Canadiens. William Nylander had fans thinking this would be an easy night when he scored just 48 seconds into the opening frame, but Montreal responded with three unanswered goals – one in each period. Nylander returned to the scoresheet to bring the team within one in the dying minutes, but the Leafs didn’t have any more in the tank to pull together the win.
The consensus about this game was exactly what I outlined as a concern in the pregame – this was a battle of a team that made wholesale changes and hadn’t played with each other yet, versus a team that had success and kept most of their group together. Toronto found themselves out of sync at times, and it cost them. We’ll see if there’s a little more chemistry tonight.
About the Islanders (0-0-0)
The Islanders start their season anew tonight, hoping to build on a nine-point and 20-net-goal improvement from last season. They’re a little bit bolstered from last season, now having a full year of Brayden Schenn to work with after acquiring him at the deadline, and having defensive phenom Matthew Schaefer now a year more experienced. In a lot of ways, though, the team is the same as it’s been for the past few years. Casey Cizikas is still at it? Good for him.
The strength of this team remains in their defensive depth. On top of Schaefer, the rest of their top four is very respectable. Ilya Sorokin remains one of the league’s best goalies and Semyon Varlamov is back after missing nearly two years after partial replacements in both his knees. Despite missing the playoffs, the Islanders allowed the fifth-fewest goals in the NHL last yera – the same 236 as the Stanley Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes.
Projected Lineups
| Toronto Maple Leafs | New York Islanders |
|---|---|
| Kirill Marchenko – Auston Matthews – Jack Rolsovic Gavin McKenna – John Tavares – William Nylander Easton Cowan – Nick Paul – Colton Sissons Brandon Duhaime – Teddy Blueger – Bo Groulx Jake McCabe – Chris Tanev Morgan Rielly – Darren Raddysh Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Troy Stetcher | Simon Holmstrom – Bo Horvat – Kyle Palmieri Mattias Maccelli – Calum Ritchie – Brayden Schenn Viktor Eklund – Jean Gabriel Pageau – Emil Heineman Ondrej Palat – Casey Cizikas – Anthony Duclair Adam Pelech – Matthew Schaefer Alexander Romanov – Ryan Pulock Logan Stanley – Tony DeAngelo |
| Starting Goalie: Anthony Stolarz (2025/26: 10-10-3, 3.28 GAA, 0.893 SV%) Backing Up: Sergei Bobrovsky | Starting Goalie: Ilya Sorokin (2025/26: 29-10-4, 2.78 GAA, 0.901 SV%) Backing Up: Semyon Varlamov |
The Maple Leafs are making one change, bringing in Bo Groulx for his season debut. Groulx is the only true graduate from the Calder Cup-winning Marlies roster on this team (unless you want to count John Gruden behind the bench), so it’d be nice to see him stick. Who he comes out for is unknown at the moment, though my guess would be Zack Mackewen, unless the team is brave enough to health-bomb (scratch) one of their multi-million dollar depth free agent signings on Day 2 of the season.
The Islanders look like you’d expect the Islanders to look like, save for one missing forawrd (more on that as we scroll down). As stated previously, those top two pairs will be a nuisance. The third pair of Stanley and DeAngelo, well, they’re going to make goals happen a lot this year if kept together. In which team’s net remains to be seen.
Last Matchup
These two teams last played each other on April 9th of last year, near the end of the regular season. Well, in Toronto’s case, a team wearing Leafs jerseys did. Just eight players who played in that game for the Maple Leafs are projected to be playing tonight, and one of them is playing for the Islanders.
New York carried the balance of this game, going ahead 2-0 in the first five minutes and outshooting Toronto 44-16 across the contest. All five of the Islanders’ goal scorers (Schenn, Pageau, Schaefer, Heineman, and Ritchie) are with the team tonight. The closest Toronto got in this one was a brief moment of equalization in the scond period when Easton Cowan scored on the poweprlay, but three unanswered New York goals brought a 5-3 final.
Injuries Of Note
No news on the injury front for Toronto. The same players who were out yesterday (the LTIR duo + Joshua) remain out today, not joined by anyone else.
The Leafs get a big break here, as the Islanders are without star forward Matthew Barzal to start the year. Barzal has an inury to his left knee that has shown some signs of prolonged inflammation, and New York would rather play it safe than sorry.
Streaks Of Note
William Nylander would be the Leaf on the hottest streak by default here, having scored both of Toronto’s goals yesterday. Can he continue his torrid 168-goal pace? Probably not. Will the whole team continue their putrid 168-goal pace? Hopefully not. But either way, he’s the stick to watch for the moment. (We’ll start having real streaks around the 5-10 game mark, I swear).
Former Leafs forward Mattias Maccelli was the top scorer for the Islanders in the preseason, scoring two goals on two shots. He also added an assist for three total points in two games. Matthew Schaefer and Cole Eiserman (the latter of whom will start the year in AHL Hamilton) co-led the team in shots in the preseason with six.
Early Thoughts
The Islanders have often been a tough opponent for the Maple Leafs across this era – call it their revenge for the whole “signing John Tavares” thing, I guess. Toronto has won just two of their last ten games against them going back to March 2023, and the Leafs have only won the season series against them once since 2018/19.
Nevertheless, facing them without Barzal is fortunate timing, and if you’re going to have a back-to-back, this is the right time to have it. Everyone is still fresh at the start of the year, everyone is looking to get more familiar with each other, and it allows the team to quickly turn the page on yesterday. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Leafs even up their record with this one, while the Islanders are still kicking off their rust.
Programming Note: There will be some games where I won’t be around on the night-of this year. Last night was one of them, as the U18 team I’m continuing to help out with this year also had it’s first game of the year. The normal process for nights like this will simply be pushing the postgame to the morning, but with a back-to-back, we’ll opt for a double recap tonight. Talk soon!
