The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a slump, and the schedule isn’t giving them many easy outs. Tonight, they’ll take on the Colorado Avalanche, a heavy favourite that they’ve beaten once this year, but will surely be looking for revenge.
Fast Facts
| Puck Drop | October 30th @ 7:30 p.m. Scotiabank Arena, Toronto |
| Broadcast | TV: TSN 4 (Regional), TVA Sports (French) Radio: TSN 1050 Online: Sportsnet+ |
| Gameday Odds (Market Typical) | Maple Leafs +137, Avalanche -162 Maple Leafs +1.5 -172, Avalanche -1.5 +146 Goal Line 6.5 (Over -117, Under -103) |
About the Maple Leafs (8-9-2)
Well, any goodwill from the past few weeks has certainly worn off quickly. A four-game win streak has suddenly shifted to losses in five of six, the only relief being against a team tanking at a generational rate, and now the Leafs find themselves under both big-boy and Bettman 0.500 as we near the quarter season mark. Not great!
Toronto’s lineup has been depleted by injuries in recent weeks, and that’s not an unfair excuse to give them for their performances, but this is where the depth really gets challenged. This is especially true with the forward group. While many praised Toronto’s efforts to load up on bottom six-style forwards this summer in pursuit of an identity, it’s now up them in a spot where when two skilled forwards get hurt, we’re suddenly seeing the team ask questions like “what if we put Zack MacEwen next to Auston Matthews?”
It’s not really fair to anyone involved, and not conductive to assertive hockey, a major barrier for Toronto as they look to start clilmbing up the standings. They’re in a position now where they basically need their top eight forwards to all stay healthy, or really hope someone has a nuclear game. It’s not ideal.
About the Colorado Avalanche (10-6-2)
The Avalanche haven’t quite been as good as one would normally expect them to be out of the gate – only two more wins than losses, an expected goal share (slightly) under 50, and they aren’t getting as many saves as they’re used to – their Blackwood/Wedgewood tandem has been one the more memorable ones in the league in recent years not just for their similar names and career trajectories, but for the fact that they tend to stop a ton of pucks, and that’s not quite happened this year. Mackenzie Blackwood’s 0.901 save percentage is fine by league standards but the worst he’s posted since 2024, and Scott Wedgewood, after being one of the league’s best netminders last year, has been awful out of the gate, posting an 0.867 through five appearances.
Some of that is Colorado giving up tougher shots than in previous years, though they’ve still been above average defensively. Whatever the case may be, this would be something that Toronto could presumably take advantage of – you know, if their skilled forwards were healty and they had more than one defenceman in the lineup with a goal this year. Who knows, maybe they find a way again despite the circumstances.
Projected Lineups
| Toronto Maple Leafs Lines | Colorado Avalanche Lines |
|---|---|
| Easton Cowan – Auston Matthews – Jack Roslovic Gavin McKenna – John Tavares – William Nylander Dakota Joshua – Nick Paul – Ryan Tverberg Brandon Duhaime – Teddy Blueger – Zack MacEwen Jake McCabe – Darren Raddysh Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Troy Stecher Dakota Mermis – Chris Tanev | Arturri Lehkonen – Nathan MacKinnon – Martin Necas Gabriel Landeskog – Nazem Kadri – Nicolas Roy Jaden Schwartz – Brock Nelson – T.J. Hughes Parker Kelly – Fedor Svchkov – Logan O’Connor Brett Kulak – Cale Makar Devon Toews – Sam Malinski Noah Juulsen – Brent Burns |
| Starting Goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky 3-7-2, 3.34 GAA, 0.886 SV% Backing Up: Anthony Stolarz | Starting Goalie: Mackenzie Blackwood 9-3-1, 2.60 GAA, 0.901 SV% Backing Up: Scott Wedgewood |
We don’t really have confirmation on lines just yet. I assume Chris Tanev will be back for Cole McWard, if the reasoning for his absence was legitimate. The Maple Leafs called up Ryan Tverberg and sent down Vinni Lettieri today, so I assume the former will draw in. But it’s muddy from there. There are several things that I think could be changed here, from players being swapped outright to shuffled orders. We’re in strange times for this group.
Colorado’s group obviously speaks for itself. The bottom fringes aren’t as good as one would expect of a team of their pedigree, but that probably explains why they aren’t running away with the standings. All the same, their Top-9 and Top-4 are disgusting.
Last Matchup
Toronto’s last game against Toronto was a month ago today, a thriller which saw the Leafs’ top players prove themselves. William Nylander had five points, Auston Matthews had four, Gavin McKenna was crushing it on the powerplay, Sergei Bobrovsky kept three-past-Bob to just three. It was a good night. You can read more about the game here.
Injuries Of Note
Morgan Rielly is likely still out with a lower body injury. Colton Sissons left Saturday’s game early and is now week-to-week with a lower-body injury. Chris Tanev is supposedly back from his out-of-nowhere maintenance day. Jack Rosolvic may or may not be back? Who knows anymore, man.
The Leafs have also updated a few of the other injuries in the hopper – Nick Blankenburg (upper), Kirill Marchenko (lower) and Marshall Rifai (lower) are all still week-to-week, while Morgan Rielly is day-to-day.
On Colorado’s end, Josh Manson is out for about seven more weeks with an ankle injury. Zachary L’Heureux has been two games away from being two games away on an upper-body injury for nearly a mont now. We’ll see if today’s the day for him, though he’s very much an edge-of-lineup guy.
Streaks Of Note
- The two teams have split their last ten games against each other, going 5-5 since January 2022. Toronto has wins in three of the last four.
- Auston Matthews has the most assists (9), points (14), and shots on goal (31) on the Maple Leafs in their last ten games. William Nylander leads the team in goals with six in that stretch. The active blue line still lacks a goal from anyone other than Troy Stetcher since, uh, the start of this year.
- Nathan MacKinnon has been the most productive Avalanche forward across their last ten games, though not to his usual video-game number degree. He has for goals and a team-leading ten assists and 14 points in that stretch.
- Arturri Lehkonen leads the Avalanche in goals in that timeframe with six, while T.J. Hughes has the shots lead with 29. Cale Makar shares the assist lead with MacKinnon (10).
Early Thoughts
As fun as it would be for the Maple Leafs to sweep this season series despite all of their faults, my guess is that the Avalanche come out poised to make a statement here. That last game likely stung for them and having gone 5-2-1 in their last eight, they’re starting to string together some momentum. They’ll have three days off and this is the first game of their road trip, so expect them ready to go.
