Leafs Gameday (October 20): Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Columbus Blue Jackets Preview
In a week that began in the city of Toronto with a waterfront marathon, the Maple Leafs have instead opted for a spring. Flying through their schedule, the blue and white go straight from a 3-1 win against San Jose last night to a road game against Columbus this evening – with two games still to go this week! Here’s what to expect as they take on the Blue Jackets, in a game that will no doubt have it’s focus built around last month’s trade between the two teams.
Fast Facts
| Puck Drop | October 20th @ 7:00 p.m. Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH |
| Broadcast | TV: Sportsnet (National) Radio: Sportsnet 590 The FAN Online: Sportsnet+ |
| Gameday Odds (Market Typical) | Maple Leafs +130, Blue Jackets -155 Maple Leafs +1.5 -187, Blue Jackets -1.5 +157 Goal Line 6.5 (Over -108, Under -112) |
About the Maple Leafs (4-4-2)
Yesterday was a great night for calming some narratives in town. Toronto got back in the win column after losing five of six, they did so in a low-scoring fashion after a few weeks of Sergei Bobrovsky being an automatic three against, and Gavin McKenna scored the winner two games after a benching saga. Time to be chill, right?
Nope, it had to be these guys next. So naturally, there’s going to be some added pressure on Kirill Marchenko’s shoulders tonight. Marchenko has had a wild start to the year, coming in looking electric in his debut, followed by slowing down his flash as he got adjusted to playing with in the system. This got some people worried about fit and upside, despite it being part of the process that many players go through, but even within that adjustment he continued to put points on the board. So far, he’s been on the scoresheet in eight of ten games with the Leafs, and is starting to blend into the mix as hoped.
Today, though, it’s on him to return to a place that might feel a little spurned by his lack of full commitment that led to him being put on the trade block in the first place. Adam Fantilli even made a comment along those lines today. “Happy we got guys who want to be here. It would have been a nightmare having a guy that didn’t want to be here all year. I’m glad we got that trade done when we did.”
Tonight shouldn’t be just on him though. The Leafs continue to wait for playrs outside of their top seven forwards to contribute anything to the scoresheet, and this would be a great night to show him some support.
About the Blue Jackets (3-4-0)
Obviously, if Marchenko is the focus on one hand, the players Toronto moved will be a focus on the other.
The biggest piece of the departed, by far, was forward Matthew Knies, and when he made his debut for Columbus on October first, fans began to be terrified by what the Leafs may have given up. In sixteen minutes of ice time, Knies picked up two goals and one asisst against the Buffalo Sabres. In the early second period of his second game, he picked up another assist.
Since then though? Nothing. Knies is pointless in his last five games, taking just seven shots and outside of a four-hit performance on Saturday, he hasn’t really thrown his body around either. It’s not for a lack of ice time, as Columbus have put him in a first line role, but he’s just not done much with it. I think an element of this is the playing-free debut followed by adjustment curve that I brought up on Marchenko’s end as well, so it’s unlikely that he’s permanently forgotten how to play productive hockey, but his season will be one to keep an eye on as we wonder if there was a good reason for Toronto to be so urgent with shopping him in the past year.
Emil Andrae is also on the other side of the coin here, though he hasn’t had much opportunity to show his stuff. There’s still a piece of me that wishes he was still around in the Leafs system if only for the fact that everyone on the roster is closer to retirement age than prospect age, but if we were thinking this would be a quick told-you-so situation, that hasn’t come. Andrae had an assist in Columbus’ first game and played 14 minutes in the second, but since then, he’s been healthy scratched three times and played just thirteen combined minutes in the two games he was dressed for. Needless to say, Columbus hasn’t felt him to be a fit yet.
Mind you, they haven’t felt positve about a log of things. Rick Bowness has already re-used the “these guys don’t care about losing” card that he already pulled out late last year and Columbus’ 2.43 goals per game rank 26th in the league. They’ll need a little more jump in their step in a hurry – maybe a home game coated in storylines against a tired team will be the spark they need?
Projected Lineups
| Toronto Maple Leafs Lines | Columbus Blue Jackets Lines |
|---|---|
| Easton Cowan – Auston Matthews – Jack Roslovic William Nylander – Nick Paul – Kirill Marchenko Gavin McKenna – Colton Sissons – Vinni Lettieri Brandon Duhaime – Teddy Blueger – Zach MacEwen Jake McCabe – Darren Raddysh Morgan Rielly – Troy Stecher Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Marshall Rifai | Matthew Knies – Adam Fantilli – Kent Johnson Dmitri Voronkov – Sean Monahan – Valeri Nichushkin Cole Sillinger – Charlie Coyle – Mathieu Olivier Ryan Lomberg – Luca Del Bel Belluz – Conor Garland Zach Werenski – Damon Severson Jake Chrstiansen – Denton Mateychuk Emil Andrae – Erik Gudbranson |
| Starting Goalie: Anthony Stolarz 2-1-0, 3.31 GAA, 0.875 SV% Backing Up: Artur Akthyamov | Starting Goalie: Jet Greaves 2-2-0, 2.58 GAA, 0.905 SV% Backing Up: Cam Talbot |
The Maple Leafs aren’t changing a ton tonight. Sergei Bobrovsky gets the night away from pads in Toronto’s effort to keep both goalies rested this week. Marshall Rifai comes in for Nick Blankenburg.
Columbus will run a very spread-out group that if we’re being honest, as the makings of a team with a pretty decent floor. Luca Del Bel Belluz has one of my favourite names in hockey. Conor Garland has not at all been a fit in Columbus, putting up 7 points in 21 games post-acqusition last season, and following that up by going pointless in seven this year. Jet Greaves is one of most under-hearlded goaltenders in the league and will provide a decent test for the Leafs tonight.
Last Matchup
The Leafs and Blue Jackets got all of their games against each other out of the way early last year, playing all three before the end of November. Toronto had a loss, an overtime loss, and an overtime win, saving the best for last on the road. Well, best in terms of result – it took 53 minutes for this game to provide a goal. Zach Werenski put the Blue Jackets up 1-0 with six and a half minutes remaining, only to be met by an Easton Cowan response three minutes later. With 20 seconds remaining in overtime, William Nylander capped off an extended offensive zone possession with his game-winning eleventh goal of the season.
Injuries Of Note
The Maple Leafs have nothing new to report on the injury front – the same five guys as usual with no updates on their recovery.
The Blue Jackets are missing Isac Lundestrom (month-to-month, achilles surgery), Ivan Provorov (week-to-week, lower body), and Dante Fabbro (week-to-week, hand).
Streaks Of Note
- The Blue Jackets have won six of the last ten games these two teams have played against each other going back to April 2023.
- Games between the two teams have generally been pretty low scoring, with four of the last five featuring fewer than six goals.
- Both of Columbus’ points leaders are goalless. Charlie Coyle and Zach Werenski each have six assists in seven games. Kent Johnson leads the team in goals with four.
- Yeah, yeah, I know you’re all thinking it – a Matthew Knies anytime goal is going for about +185 on the betting markets, the third-shortest odds for a goal of any player on either team tonight despite his slump.
- Jack Roslovic gets to play against his hometown (and former) team. He’s pointless in his last two games, just barely missing an open net last night – does he get timely revenge tonight? Historicallly, he’s been pretty productive gainst the Jackets, producing seven points in 11 games.
- Zach Werenski has 21 points in 20 games in his career against the Leafs, which is among his most productive clips against any team.
Early Thoughts
No matter what happens in this one, it won’t define whether or not either team made the correct decision with their big trade. These things take time to sort out, and how one performs in the other 81 (plus, hopefully, playoff) games is more important than the head-to-head of a season series. With that said, it would be a lot of fun if this was a big night for one or both of Marchenko or Knies. Honestly, it might be even better if Emil Andrae goes off for some reason. Realistically, it might be a bit of a snoozer with Toronto playing tired and travelled and Columbus struggling to score goals. Then again, we said the opposite last night, and look how that worked out…
