The Toronto Maple Leafs are back from the west coast and begin an extended homestand, taking on the Utah Mammoth at Scotiabank Arena on Tuesday night.
Fast Facts
| Puck Drop | November 3rd @ 7:00 p.m. Scotiabank Arena, Toronto |
| Broadcast | TV: TSN 4 (Regional) Radio: TSN 1050 Online: Sportsnet+ |
| Gameday Odds (Market Typical) | Maple Leafs +110, Mammoth -130 Maple Leafs +1.5 -220, Mammoth -1.5 +180 Goal Line 6.5 (Over -133, Under +113) |
About the Maple Leafs (8-6-2)
The Maple Leafs come in riding a win against the Canucks on Saturday, but it wasn’t the most convincing game they could’ve had against the NHL’s worst team. An early goal put them on the right side of evening for the bulk of regulation, but the insistence to try to protect the lead rather than play assertively made the result a little too close for comfort.
Jim Hiller has been quick to say he’ll adjust the formula when sitting back leads to a loss, but we’ll see if there was any losses learned from the situation following a win.
A lot of eyes tonight will be on Sergei Bobrovsky, whose start in Toronto has been rather messy. Just once this year has he allowed fewer than three goals, and Toronto’s last-minute loss to the Kraken last week felt like a tipping point for even the hopes of the most optimistic fan. The Leafs are going to give him as much rope to battle back into form as they can – with 95% of his contract ahead of him, they really have no choice. Optimists will point to his “slow starter” reputation, and Jim Hiller spoke about his meticulous preparation when asked about him yesterday. At the same time, critics will point out that October was his best month last year by almost every metric, and that being so much better prepared than everyone else right now and still struggling is a bit of an alarm bell.
Ultimately though, he’s a goalie, and goalies are notoriously difficult to sort out. So we’ll see where this goes. Bobrovsky has been better against Utah (0.911 SV%) since the start of 2024-25 than he has against other opponents (0.891), so maybe this ends up being a confidence booster.
About the Mammoth (9-6-0)
The best way to describe the Mammoth since facing the Maple Leafs is a see-saw. They picked up a win against the Edmonton Oilers two days after the Toronto game, and have alternated between losing and winning in every game since, going WLWLWLWL on their schedule sheet.
Under the hood, Utah has remained one of the better shot-metric teams in the league – they sit fourth in shot attempt share at 5v5 (55%) and a close second to Carolina in expected goal share (60%). Alas, finishing (8.5%, 21st) and stopping pucks (0.890, 26th) have both been a struggle, making games tougher on them than you’d expect.
Projected Lineups
| Toronto Maple Leafs Lines | Utah Mammoth Lines |
|---|---|
| Easton Cowan – Auston Matthews – Jack Roslovic Daktota Joshua – Nick Paul – William Nylander Gavin McKenna – Colton Sissons – Vinni Lettieri Brandon Duhaime – Teddy Blueger – Zack MacEwen Jake McCabe – Darren Raddysh Morgan Rielly – Chris Tanev Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Troy Stecher | Clayton Keller – Nick Schmaltz – Dylan Guenther Logan Cooley – Vincent Trocheck – Lawson Crouse Anders Lee – Barrett Hayton – Michael Carcone Jack McBain – Kevin Stenlund – Liam O’Brien Mikhail Sergachev – MacKenzie Weegar Nate Schmidt – Andrew Peeke Dmitri Simashev – Artem Duda |
| Starting Goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky 3-5-2, 3.28 GAA, 0.885 SV% Backing Up: Anthony Stolarz | Starting Goalie: Sebastian Cossa 3-1-0, 3.32 GAA, 0.859 SV% Backing Up: Karel Vejmelka |
With Dakota Joshua looking surprisingly good in his Leafs return on Saturday, Toronto have opted to move forward with him as a lineup regular for the time being and placed Bo Groulx on waivers on Monday. We’ll know by puck drop if he’s headed elsewhere, but my guess is that with a pointless seven-game run that didn’t look as promising as his call-up last year, he’s more loikely to clear, giving the Marlies some much-appreciated help.
The Mammoth will look a little bit different this time around. A few players are out, be it due to injuries or assignments to the minors, and basically everyone in the forward group has been shuffled around into a diffrent spot as Utah looks for it’s best fit. Right now they project to start Sebastian Cossa in goal – his numbers have been far from good, but they’ve won a healthy share of games with him, and Karel Vejmelka wasn’t brilliant on the 13th.
Last Matchup
Toronto’s last game against the Mammoth was a 5-4 loss in Utah at the start of this road trip. The reoccurring theme of this game was struggles between the pipes for both goalies, which is probably a big part of why we don’t project to see either of Stolarz or Vejmelka tonight. You can read the full recap here.
Injuries Of Note
The Maple Leafs don’t appear to have any updates on the injury front just yet. John Tavares appears to be getting closer to return, but still has some work to do.
On Utah’s end, John Marino is out with a lower-body injury that he suffered a couple of days after their last game against Toronto. As well, Kailer Yamamoto is day-to-day with an upper-body injury. Its not impossible that he draws in tonight, but doesn’t sound likely in this moment.
Streaks Of Note
- In their last ten games going back to March 2022, the Leafs and Mammoth have split their results 5-5. Uthah have taken the last two games, with Toronto’s five wins coming consecutively across 2024 and 2025. It’s been quite a while since both teams have won a game against each other in the same calendar year – will that change tonight?
- Auston Matthews leads the Maple Leafs in goals (7) and points (14) in the last ten games. Jack Roslovic has the most assists on the team in that stretch with eight, while William Nylander has the most shots on goal with 28.
- Toronto’s blue line is still severely lacking goals from anyone other than Troy Stecher. We’re still waiting for that first Darren Raddysh point bomb.
- Logan Cooley leads the Mammoth in goals (8) and points (13) over the last ten games. Clayton Keller has the most assists on Utah in that stretch with eight.
- Mikhail Sergachev leads Utah in shots on goal over the last ten games with 24, but has also been one of their biggest threats in general, scoring 4 goals and adding 7 assists from the point in that same timeframe.
- Dylan Guenther has goals in his last three games against the Leafs.
Early Thoughts
Utah haven’t been scorching in the standings in the way that some anticipated they could, but that’s not for a lack of control of play, and Toronto must stay honest with that in mind. They also really need a response night from Sergei Bobrovsky, who will have a lot of eyes on his play amidst his recent struggles. This is a winnable game if Toronto’s top players flood the net with good shots and don’t lose sight of their own end, but I also think the projection of the Mammoth as favourites to win this one is a fair one. We’ll see if the Leafs can improve on their result from a few weeks ago.
