The Toronto Maple Leafs are playing one for the nightowls and west-coasters tonight as they take on the Seattle Kraken. Its one of just four 10:00 p.m. games this year, and one that they’d really like to come out of with a better result than they had on Monday.
Fast Facts
| Puck Drop | October 28th @ 10:00 p.m. Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA |
| Broadcast | TV: Sportsnet Ontario (Regional) Radio: Sportsnet 590 The FAN Online: Sportsnet+ |
| Gameday Odds (Market Typical) | Maple Leafs -136, Kraken +116 Maple Leafs -1.5 +180, Kraken +1.5 -220 Goal Line 6.5 (Over -121, Under +101) |
About the Maple Leafs (7-5-2)
The Maple Leafs laid an egg in Calgary on Monday, but thankfully, due to “advancements” in broadcast technology, not many people were able to see it. So maybe it won’t leave too much of an impression on the fanbase?
In that sense, a 10:00 p.m game on a Wendesday also feels like a low-stakes affair, as most of their audience will likely be chasing highlights rather than the actual game. But from the same accord, that also means the impression they do make will be even more rooted in execution, rather than process. No one will notice a night where they control the puck well but lose 3-1.
They’ll also do have to do it with another one of their top players now missing from the lineup – we’ll get to that in a bit.
About the Kraken (7-4-1)
Is this the year the Kraken finally break through? For years, this has been a team with a solid floor that has struggled to attract or draft a high-ceiling player, and that inability to separate in meaningful moments has largely led to playoff misses that are too good to lead to a can’t miss player at the draft, though there is some hope that Berkly Catton (on their current roster and finding early success), Jake O’Brien (injured since preseason, likely to start with Cochella when he returns), and Chase Reid (drafted this summer, currently playing with Michigan State) can turn that around.
For now though, things have been on the up-and-up to start the year. Despite their numbers-friendly reptuation, the Kraken’s success hasn’t come through shot differential – they’re sitting dead last in shot attempt share and 29th in expected goal share. Instead, great 5-on-5 finishing (13.3%, third), dependable 5-on-5 goaltending (0.910, 11th), and sitting on the reight side of several close games has helped them, as well as facing teams like the the Red Wings and the pre-Devin Cooley Flames multiple times out of the gate.
Would I bet on this group to keep up a record with the best points-percentage in their franchise history? Probably not. But they’ll run with it while they can.
Projected Lineups
| Toronto Maple Leafs Lines | Seattle Kraken Lines |
|---|---|
| Gavin McKenna – Auston Matthews – Jack Roslovic Easton Cowan – Nick Paul – William Nylander Bo Groulx – Colton Sissons – Vinni Lettieri Brandon Duhaime – Teddy Blueger – Zach MacEwen Jake McCabe – Darren Raddysh Morgan Rielly – Troy Stecher Dakota Mermis – Oliver Ekman-Larsson | Bobby McMann – Matty Beniers – Jordan Eberle Jani Nyman – Chandler Stephenson – Mackie Samoskevich Kaapo Kakko – Berkly Catton – Shane Wright Ben Meyers – Frederik Gaudreau – Ryan Winterton Vince Dunn – Adam Larsson Ryker Evans – Brandon Montour Joshua Mahura – Cale Fleury |
| Starting Goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky 3-4-2, 3.09 GAA, 0.897 SV% Backing Up: Anthony Stolarz | Starting Goalie: Philipp Grubauer 3-1-1, 2.76 GAA, 0.911 SV% Backing Up: Joey Daccord |
I’d give a grain of salt to any Leafs lineup for the next couple of hours, since we know Kirill Marchenko is out but really have no idea what that means for the shuffle. I’d like to see Gavin McKenna go up and someone else slide into his place on the third line, but that could also make that line a bit of a black hole. It’s a tough call. Maybe they just dress Cole McWard and go with seven defencemen?
UPDATE: The Leafs have confirmed Kirill Marchenko’s absence and shuffled up the lines, particularly on left wing. Easton Cowan drops down to the second line to fill Marchenko’s void, Gavin McKenna moves up to the first tline to try his luck with Auston Matthews for a full night, and Bo Groulx draws back into the lineup to play in McKenna’s place on a line with Colton Sissons and 2025/26 Marlies teammate Vinny Lettieri. This is a pretty reasonable arrangement, and it should be fun to see how some of these lines shake out. Admittedly, line three worries me a little, but we’ll see where that goes.
In goal, they’ve confirmed that Sergei Bobrovsky will start again, going against the general assumption that this would be an Anthony Stolarz night. We’ll see how that goes.
Again, as mentioned, this Kraken group is a high-floor lineup. Basically every line and pair has to be respected to a degree, though the fourth line and third pairs are a little weaker than a top team would like. At the same time, none of those lines jump at you as one that would scare you on a regular night (maybe the third if everyone hit their maximum potential for a moment).
Of course, Bobby McMann playing his revenge game will scare all of us. As it should. The Leafs always get burned by guys like this and he’s a particularly hard-working and deterimined player as it is. No gurantees, but feels like one of those games you have to mentally treat like you’re down 1-0 off the hop because you know 74 probably has one in him.
Last Matchup
The Leafs got their season series with Seattle out of the way fairly early last year, with the last game coming in late January. The Kraken took very early control with a goal just a minute and a half into the first period, and while the Leafs squared the game up late in the frame, goals from Shane Wright and Brandon Montour thirty seconds apart from each other in the second were ones that Toronto never fully had an answer for. The Leafs got back within one in the third only to concede the insurance tally again two and a half minutes later, and gave up an empty netter for good measure, wrapping a 5-2 result.
This was another one of those games that falls under “most of the production isn’t on the team anymore”, with Nick Robertson scoring the first goal unassisted and Morgan Rielly’s 3-2 tally being assisted by Max Domi.
Injuries Of Note
As I was typing this preview out, we found out that Kirill Marchenko’s lower-body injury is “week-to-week”. We had an idea an update was coming here, both from seeing him react and leave the game on Monday, and because a group of fans spotted him flying back to Toronto seperately yesterday. I guess Marchenko’s “two week” report to his new friends was pretty truthful.
Other than that, not a lot is new. Dakota Joshua is back from his conditioning stint, where he played four games with the Toronto Marlies, went without a point, and frankly wouldn’t have stood out as a call up if his name were Doug Jones. We’ll see if he draws in right away – the Marchenko injury may necessitate that.
On Seattle’s end, Leaf-for-48-hours Jared McCann was placed on IR this week with a lower-body injury, Jacob Melanson has been out indefinitely for the past few weeks with an upper-body injury, and Ryan Lindgren is about three weeks into a 4-6 week absence with an upper-body injury.
Streaks Of Note
- The Maple Leafs have historically had the better of this head-to-head matchup since Feburary 2022, winning seven of their last ten games. With that said, two of Seattle’s three wins were a sweep of last year’s season series, so they’re the hot hand at the moment.
- This has historically been a pretty low-scoring matchup, with their last eight games featuring seven or fewer total goals, and five of those feeaturing six or fewer.
- Philipp Grubauer generally has a tough time against the Leafs, posting a 0.887 SV% in ten games against Toronto in his career.
- Morgan Rielly has picked up points in four straight games against the Kraken.
- Seattle’s production in the last ten games has come largely from the depths of their lineup. Mackie Samsokevich and Frederick Gaudreau co-lead the team in that span with five goals, while Kaapo Kakko has a co-lead for the most assists (7, with Brandon Montour) and for points (8) with Berkly Catton (3G 5A) and Montour. Our former friend Bobby McMann leads the Kraken in shots in that span with 22.
- On the flip side, Matty Beniers needs to find his stick, with just two goals, one assist, and nine shots in his last ten.
- Auston Matthews has the most goals (7) assists (8), and points (15) on the Leafs in the their last ten games. William Nylander, who trails just behind in goals (6) and assists (7), leads the team in shots on goal in that time with 32.
Early Thoughts
Toronto’s trip to Cascadia would be a great time to bank some points. The Kraken’s record is daunting, but their means of getting their show some vulnerabilities, especailly with McCann out, and following that up against a tanking Canucks group would be a nice boost in a relentless Atlantic.
They’ll need to come out looking better than they did in Calgary, though, as Seattle are capable of clogging this game up with they need to.
Also, keep an eye on Vince Dunn and Shane Wright tonight. If Seattle’s season does slide backward and Toronto is as insistent on continuing to be movers and shakers down the line as they claim to be, I wonder if there’s something to spin back to there.
