Leafs Gameday (October 24): Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Edmonton Oilers Preview
It’s always an exciting night when 34 and 97 line up across from each other. With Auston Matthews feeling on the way back to megastardom and Connor McDavid off to a generational head start, that feeling is amplified, but it’s also just one storyline as the Toronto Maple Leafs take the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday night.
Fast Facts
| Puck Drop | October 24th @ 7:00 p.m. Scotiabank Arena, Toronto |
| Broadcast | TV: Sportsnet (National) Radio: Sportsnet 590 The FAN Online: Sportsnet+ |
| Gameday Odds (Market Typical) | Maple Leafs +152, Oilers -182 Maple Leafs +1.5 -154, Oilers -1.5 +129 Goal Line 6.5 (Over -148, Under +124) |
About the Maple Leafs (6-4-2)
Doom has pivoted back to gloom in Toronto, as the losers of five in six are now the winners of three straight going into tonight. It was an unconventional win for the Maple Leafs on Thursday as, after weeks of the bottom of their lineup just playing to survive, they flipped gears, played assertive hockey, and drove much of the team’s production in a 5-4 thriller, capped off by a Troy Stecher game winner in the final minute of regulation.
It would be awesome for Toronto to find a balance here – you can’t expect the personnel they have on the firnges to light the lamp every night, but it would be nice to get them in the mix occasionally and alleviate the top scorers’ responsiblities. I’m interested to see how Jim Hiller approaches the matchup game tonight with that in mind – does he put the depth on clamps to try to make room for his horses to score, or does he go for the inverse? Last change obviously makes dictating the rules here even more difficult.
About the Edmonton Oilers (8-1-1)
There’s nothing the Oilers have enjoyed more in recent years than going on tears out of the gate with new coaches, and this has been no exception. Interestingly, Edmonton is starting off weaker under the hood with Mike Babcock than they’ve been in quite some time – their 47.6% Expected Goal share is their lowest since 2018/19 and their 49.1% shot attempt share the lowest since 2019/20. Interestingly, these are also Babcock’s weakest results by those metrics in the public era – even the “tank year” 2015/16 Leafs were a 50% team by both measures.
Injuries play a part, as do adjustment periods, as does the fact that they’re spending a lot of their time playing with the lead. Nevertheless, it’s a bit diffent than seeing Kris Knoblauch and Jay Woodcroft come in and having their teams swarm the lights out of their opponents. I suppose you don’t have to do that when you have three hyper-elite players playing the hottest hockey of their lives and every puck you’re shooting goes in.
I’m still very interested to see how Babcock handles this game, finally getting his first chance to face the Leafs since they fired him back in 2019. A lot has changed in seven years, and when he stares down the other side there won’t be that many faces that were around for his last game, even among the staff.
Projected Lineups
| Toronto Maple Leafs Lines | Edmonton Oilers Lines |
|---|---|
| Easton Cowan – Auston Matthews – Jack Roslovic Kirill Marchenko – Nick Paul – William Nylander Gavin McKenna – Colton Sissons – Vinni Lettieri Brandon Duhaime – Teddy Blueger – Zack MacEwen Jake McCabe – Darren Raddysh Morgan Rielly – Troy Stecher Dakota Mermis – Oliver Ekman-Larsson | Vasily Podkolzin – Connor McDavid – Leon Draisaitl Kasperi Kapanen – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Zach Hyman Alex Formenton – Owen Michaels – Mathieu Joseph Max Jones – Colton Dach – Filip Hallander Shakir Mukhamadullin – Evan Bouchard Ryan Shea – Connor Murphy Jake Walman – Ty Emberson |
| Starting Goalie: Anthony Stolarz 3-1-0, 2.99 GAA, 0.897 SV% Backing Up: Sergei Bobrovsky | Starting Goalie: Tristan Jarry 2-0-1, 2.97 GAA, 0.873 SV% Backing Up: Matt Tomkins |
The Maple Leafs appear to running the same lineup structurally, though there will be at least one change with one of Dakota Mermis or Cole McWard coming in for Nick Blankenburg. I do wonder if Vinni Lettieri gets rotated out too, though Bo Groulx hasn’t been the most productive option himself.
Injuries play a huge part here, but it really is crazy how top-heavy the Edmonton roster is. Their peaks scare the bejesus out of anyone, but their blue line isn’t particularly intimidating (especially off-puck) and the bottom six feels vulnerable.
Last Matchup
Heading into the Thursday against the Rangers, I made the point that the Leafs didn’t much production in their previous game against them from players who would be drawing in that night. It turned out to not be much of a hurdle, as a new wave of producers would take their place.
The Leafs will hope for similar here, as while their last game against the Oilers was a 5-2 victory back in February, none of the five goals were scored by players in the Toronto lineup tonight. On the flip side, current Leafs winger Jack Roslovic was wearing Edmonton blue in this game, and had an assist on the Oilers’ first goal.
Injuries Of Note
The Maple Leafs added Marshall Rifai to their injury list before Thursdays game, and Nick Blankenburg to it afterwards. Tough time to be a depth defenceman here. Cole McWard and Dakota Mermis were called up – you can read more about all that here. Everything else is still status quo for now.
The Oilers are also very injured. Alex Regula has been on LTIR since the start of the year. Also absent since before opening night are Frederik Andersen, Mattias Janmark, and Matthew Savoie. Mattias Ekholm suffered a concussion on Thursday and is out for at least tonight. Devon Levi is also hurt after playing the entirety of Thursday’s game. Jason Dickinson started the year on the IR, came back for three games, and is already back out of the lineup with a lower-body injury.
Streaks Of Note
- Connor McDavid is arguably on the hottest streak in the history of the NHL right now, relative to his era. I’m not saying this with any form of hyperbole. He has eight goals and 23 (!!) assists in Edmonton’s ten games played this year.
- A lot of that comes from the fact that anyone in his orbit is shooting at an insane clip right now. The Oilers on the whole are shooting at an 18.5% conversion rate, which would be far and away the best in NHL history if it kept up. The “worst” finisher on his line is Leon Draisaitl with a shooting percentage of 27.8%. Evan Bouchard is sitting at 23.3% from the point. It’s the heater to end all heaters right now.
- Even if their magic aimbot powers fade, the top players all remain threats. McDavid (25), Draisaitl (36), Bouchard (30), and Vasily Podkolzin (25) are all throwing plenty of pucks to the net, which is part of why a PDO heater for McDavid is coming with results comparable to Gretzky and Lemieux. A cooled-off top line is still a threat to put a goal or two on the board.
- Auston Matthews leads the Leafs in goals (8), assists (10, tied with William Nylander) points (18), and shots (33) over Toronto’s last ten games. Not quite McDavid numbers, but still great.
- With Thursday’s fourth-line explosion, every Leafs forward now has points in their last ten games played. Vinni Lettieri’s points have a bit of an asterisk, since they game two years ago with a different team.
- Troy Stecher’s last minute game winner on Thursday is the only goal by a defenceman in the Leafs lineup tonight in the team’s last ten games.
- The Maple Leafs have won seven of their last ten against the Oilers dating back to December 2021, with wins in four of their last five.
Early Thoughts
Do you think the Washington Capitals will lend the Leafs Justin Holl for tonight? Forget the injury concerns, if there’s one man in this world that’s capable of finding the emergency brake on an runaway McDavid…
I could see this game going a lot of ways. Honestly, with all the attention on it, with all the expectations of offensive explosion, and the safe assumption that the coach on the other side will find a way to make this game about him, I could see this ending up as a stale standoff. Ideally, though, we get the chaos that fans are rooting for.
