Leafs Gameday (October 19): Toronto Maple Leafs vs. San Jose Sharks Preview
The vibe around Toronto went from “just happy to be here again” to frothy real quick, eh? With losses in five of their last six but tastes of a decent team in many of them, tensions are starting to flare while the Toronto Maple Leafs find a way to pick up a couple more wins. They’ll have three opportunities to do so in their next four days, starting with facing the San Jose Sharks tonight.
Fast Facts
| Puck Drop | October 19th @ 7:30 p.m. Scotiabank Arena, Toronto |
| Broadcast | TV: TVA Sports (French) Radio: Sportsnet 590 The FAN Online: Sportsnet+ |
| Gameday Odds (Market Typical) | Maple Leafs -134, Sharks +114 Maple Leafs -1.5 +175, Sharks +1.5 -210 Goal Line 6.5 (Over -130, Under +113) |
About the Maple Leafs (3-4-2)
Firstly, unrelated to the Leafs themselves, but technically related to their bosses: I despise everything about this being a Sportsnet+ game. Fragmenting broadcast availability into a bunch of different places – and now having two outlets that take away the option of standard television locally for several games a year is a brutal way to go about things. Following a single NHL team from home shouldn’t require a vigilant attention span, nor should it cost as much as an essential utilty. The league and its teams can complain about piracy all it wants, but the disappearance of a simple and affordable catch-all is what leads people to this path in the first place.
Anyway, back to the game. Toronto ha stwo regulation wins this year, and one in seven games this month. We’re all excited about the fact that these games have been more entertaining, and that they haven’t really been out of any of them (Saturday was their first multi-goal loss, in which they only fell behind by two with six minutes remaining). But the results are starting to feel closer to last year despite hope that the team could at least battle for a wildcard spot.
Specifically, the back-end is showing its warts. There are no regular defencemen in this lineup on the right side of 30 years old – Nick Blankenburg feels like the blue line’s version of Gavin McKenna and he’s a 28-year-old that would likely be scratched if 36-year-old Chris Tanev wasn’t injured. There is still no flow in puck movement and no clear pathway to suppression with what they have – Blankenburg and Oliver Ekman-Larsson have posted decent underlying numbers out of the gate, but are also playing the easiest matchups. Maybe you tighten the structure, but then you lose the fun element and likely still don’t have the talent level to turn it into wins – see their lead protection efforts against Buffalo, and how they fared against a structurally stingy Islanders team.
Maybe a game against an up-and-coming group like the the Sharks gives them an opportunity to find some flow again, but it feels like some questions will have to come about personnel eventually. Unfortunately, there’s probably no worse time to find an immediately-capable north-pushing defenceman than the start of an ongoing season.
About the San Jose Sharks (4-3-1)
Former Maple Leafs R&D Analyst and friend of the blog Bruce Peter has started up Solving Hockey, a blog where he follows four teams and tackles the problems that ail them. The Sharks are among the four (along with the Flyers, Jets, and Sabres), so I’ve had him set the scene:
The Sharks are off to a tough start this season without a regulation win througheight games. At 5v5, they are being outshot a little, but outchanced by a lot per expected goals. They rank in the bottom of the league in both shooting percentage and save percentage, so there’s lots of room to grow, one could say. The power play needs to be stronger than league average, and their penalty kill has been terrible. This is a step back for a team that was looking to build on a strong finish to last year.
The forward lines are starting to take shape after a tough start, with Chernyshov taking over from Marchment on the top line with Celebrini and Smith. Wennberg has been notably strong at both ends of the ice to start this season as well, and the team has the talent to make a dangerous third line as well with recent second overall picks Michael Misa and Ivar Stenberg in the mix with vets like Toffoli, Marchment, and Sherwood. It’s on defence that things remain unsettled: they have yet to find a strong mix, and are trying to make a pairing of Nurse and Kesselring into the reliable pairing of the group, while giving Trouba and Orlov different young partners to babysit (Dickinson, Cagnoni, Allan). No one looks the part of being able to take on tough assignments to date, and one wonders if they assigned the right vets to the right role, or even if there actually is a right mix amongst this group of defencemen.
Projected Lineups
| Toronto Maple Leafs Lines | San Jose Sharks Lines |
|---|---|
| William Nylander – Auston Matthews – Jack Roslovic Easton Cowan – Nick Paul – Kirill Marchenko Gavin McKenna – Colton Sissons – Vinni Letteri Brandon Duhaime – Teddy Blueger – Zach MacEwen Jake McCabe – Darren Raddysh Morgan Rielly – Troy Stecher Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Nick Blankenburg | Igor Chernyshov – Macklin Celebrini – Will Smith Ivar Stenberg – Michael Misa – Kiefer Sherwood Mason Marchment – Alex Wennberg – Tyler Toffoli Barclay Goodrow – Zack Ostapchuk – Collin Graf Darnell Nurse – Michael Kesselring Sam Dickinson – Jacob Trouba Dmitry Orlov – Luca Cagnoni |
| Starting Goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky 1-3-2, 3.28 GAA, 0.890 SV% Backing Up: Artur Akthyamov | Starting Goalie: Yaroslav Askarov 2-3-0, 3.99 GAA, 0.848 SV% Backing Up: Alex Nedeljkovic |
The Leafs lines are by and large the same as what they ran against the Islanders, with Lettieri taking over Groulx’s spot. Unfortunately, this is the problem with your IR cases being key players – there’s only so many different combinations you can try when the top/bottom half of your lineup is this clear. You’ve got one line that you hope can score you your goals, two lines that are now downgraded to “well, I hope the most skilled guy elevetes them tonight”, and a fourth line that you hope can survive. The blue line, well, they all kinda feel like “just survive” pairs right now.
San Jose’s lineup is interesting. There’s a lot of excitement for what they could be come, but you can understand why this isn’t a team lighting it up right away – an interesting combination of young players with lots of development track to go, established names who feel like they’re more likely to move backwards than forwards, and at the moment, only Celebrini to be a true takeover talent (but what a talent, at that). Interestingly, you can’t really count most of this lineup out – maybe the fourth line, but I can’t say they’re much less likely to tilt the ice than what Toronto has.
Last Matchup
Toronto’s last game against the Sharks came in San Jose back in April, in the peak of the “screw it” phase of last season. It sure looked like it, too, as Toronto fell behind within three and a half minutes and were never really in this game, taking just 20 shots and losing 4-1. To make matters worse, the lone Toronto goal came from the currently-injured John Tavares.
Injuries Of Note
No news on the injury front for the Leafs. Stolarz and Bobrovsky will alternate rest days with the 3-in-4 ahead but both are cleared to play. William Nylander is sick and missed morning skate but is expected to still play.
The Sharks are fully healthy. Must be nice!
Streaks Of Note
- Even as the Sharks go through their long and winding rebuild, Toronto has struggled against them over the past five years, going winning just four of six since October 2021. San Jose currently has a four-game winning streak in this head-to-head.
- Auston Matthews has points in four straight against the Sharks, while William Nylander has points in six straight against them. Nylander in particular has always fared well against San Jose, with 21 points in 16 games. Sergei Bobrovsky has also had good fortune against them, posting a 0.932 SV% and two shutouts in 23 games against them across his career.
- On the Sharks’ side, Alex Wennberg has points in four consecutive games against the Leafs. Macklin Celebrini is also firing out of the gate, independent of anything to do with Toronto, with 11 points in six games.
Early Thoughts
If you fall into narrative-chasing with this game, you’re going to get whiplash before you get anywhere. Young russian goalie (Askarov) vs. the elder statesmen! Former young phenom core (Matthews & Co) vs the new kids on the block (Celebrini & Co)! The Sharks have six Toronto-area guys in the lineup (Toffoli, Dickinson, Goodrow, Misa, Marchment, Nurse)! The last two factors in particular will probably lead to a very interesting crowd mix at SBA tonight. There’s a lot here to have fun with, and a lot of reasons to believe this can go the other way.
On the other hand, the Leafs feel due for another strong game, especially in the face of frustration. You also wonder what direction the “William Nylander Flu Game” thing will go – will it lead to an adrenaline fuelled legacy night, or Toronto to look even more behind the looking glass? The Leafs are still favoured to win this game, though with lower odds that they’ve had against the Sharks in a long time. Whatever the result, I’m sure it’ll leave the handful of people who are able to watch it with a lot to talk about.
