Leafs Gameday (October 15): Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Buffalo Sabres
After a Western Conference road trip, what better way to come back to your own building than by hosting a division rival? The Toronto Maple Leafs return home on Thursday night to take on the Buffalo Sabres, who won the Atlantic Division last year, but are currently showing signs of vulnerability.
Fast Facts
| Puck Drop | October 15th @ 7:00 p.m. Scotiabank Arena, Toronto |
| Broadcast | TV: TSN 4 (Regional) Radio: TSN 1050 Online: Sportsnet+ |
| Gameday Odds (Market Typical) | Maple Leafs -122, Sabres +102 Maple Leafs -1.5 +195, Sabres +1.5 -240 Goal Line 6.5 (Over -127, Under +107) |
About the Maple Leafs (3-3-1)
Toronto’s road trip somehow leaves one pretty pleased yet hungry for more. Taking on Vegas, Colorado, and Utah while trying to undo the warts of a basement season, you’d be happy with splitting the points, which is exactly what the Leafs did, with an overtime loss, a regulation win, and a one-goal regulation loss respectively. At the same time, the process of all three – a collapse in Vegas, a slow start in Denver, and shambles between the pipes in Salt Lake City could leave one feeling that Toronto is pretty close to hanging with the big boys if they could clean some things up.
Now, they have an opportunity to adjust from home base and see if they can find that next gear, with four of their next five games being in Toronto. Speaking of adjustment, one name a lot of focus has been placed on is Kirill Marchenko. Despite fantastic underlying metrics and points in six of his first seven games in blue and white, some frustrations are starting to mount as people wonder when the flashier moments will translate into more goals. Like I said in our second recap of the season, the slightly accustomed zone is a pain. Being there on a road trip, even more so. Doing what he has despite that? A great sign. We’ll see if he can start putting more together over this next week.
About the Sabres (3-3-1)
As referred to before, hopes and expectations are high for the Sabres after finally returning to the playoffs in explosive fashion last year. Some of their run, which really picked up in late November, felt like they were performing a little above their heads, but after years of looking like a breakout candidate team and never quite getting over the hump, no one wanted to question it.
The start of this year hasn’t been easy for them, with a lot of injuries and a few tough opponents of their own. They’ve had just two opponents that they can share with Toronto so far, with results on the opposite spectrum – they had an even harder time against Utah than the Leafs did, but snagged a point against Montreal where Toronto couldn’t.
This is the second game of a seven-in-eight road trip for them, with a game next week against Philadelphia being their lone reprieve from two weeks on the road. They’ve lost both road games they’ve played thus far (the aforementioend Montreal shootout loss, and their season opener against Columbus), so the Leafs will hope to keep that fate consistent.
Projected Lineups
| Toronto Maple Leafs Lines | Buffalo Sabres Lines |
|---|---|
| Jack Roslovic – Auston Matthews – William Nylander Nick Paul – John Tavares – Kirill Marchenko Gavin McKenna – Colton Sissons – Easton Cowan Brandon Duhaime – Teddy Blueger – Zack MacEwen Jake McCabe – Darren Raddysh Morgan Rielly – Troy Stecher Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Nick Blankenburg | Peyton Krebs – Tage Thompson – Josh Doan Zach Benson – Noah Ostlund – Jack Quinn Jiri Kulich – Ryan McLeod – Konsta Helenius Beck Malenstyn – Josh Norris – Justin Danforth Olen Zellweger – Mattias Samuelsson Owen Power – Zach Metsa Denis Gilbert – Louis Crevier |
| Starting Goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky (1-2-1, 2.97 GAA, 0.907 SV%) Backing Up: Anthony Stolarz | Starting Goalie: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (2-2-1, 3.46 GAA, 0.850 SV%) Backing Up: Colten Ellis |
It looks like we’ve got a shuffle in the lineup. Despite how strong the Roslovic-Matthews-Marchenko line has been, the team is still trying to figure out a potion that consesitenly cures the middle six and have swapped Marchenko and Nylander around. Nick Paul comes up to where Easton Cowan sat on Line 2, and Colton Sissons shifts to centre on the third line to make room for Cowan.
If Toronto decides to go back to regular line structure, it seems likely that Zach MacEwen will be the one to draw in, rather than Bo Groulx. This could be in an effort to keep the peace (or at least assume advantage) should this divisional game get a bit testy.
The Sabres lineup feels a little thinned out – you’ll see why in a few minutes. All the same, there’s still at least one player you have to keep tabs on within each of their forward lines. Louis Crevier is very tall. I would not blame you if you mixed up Denis Gilbert with Tom Gilbert and wondered if the latter was somehow back in the league.
Last Matchup
The Sabres took the season series last year, winning three of four games, including a Toronto’s last game against them in March. Scoring in this game was more or less done with by the halfway mark – Owen Power and Dakota Joshua exchanged early goals in the first period, Max Domi briefly put Toronto up in the opening minute of the second, and Jack Quinn scored the last goal of regulation on a Buffalo Powerplay with nine minutes to go in the second period. The Sabres outshot the Leafs 33-19 across regulation and overtime, and eventually got the result they deserved for that in the shootout, with Quinn and Alex Tuch scoring the only goals of the skills competition.
Injuries Of Note
No one new is out for the Maple Leafs, but Chris Tanev has been downgraded to “week-to-week” with his upper-body injury. Not ideal for an aging player who has missed a lot of time over the years, including most of last year
The Sabres are very, very beat up. Jason Zucker is out indefinitely with a hernia injury from last season. Former Leafs defenceman Conor Timmins is out indefnitely with a lower body injury. Alex Lyon has been out since the preseason with an upper body injury. Matt Grzelycyk has been on IR with a lower-body injury since the second game of the season, and most importantly, captain and superstar defenceman Rasmus Dahlin is day-to-day with a lower body injury.
Streaks Of Note
Auston Matthews has been on fire this year as it is, but he’s got even more reason to keep going tonight – he’s scored points in 11 consecutive games against Buffalo. Darren Raddysh is also on a bit of a Sabres streak, with points in his last four against them.
Despite the tough season series, Toronto has won six of their last the games against Buffalo – largely built on a five-game win streak from March 2024 to April 2025.
Tage Thompson and Owen Power are leading the way in Buffalo for point production, with seven points a piece. Thompson leads the team in goals with four, while Power leads the team in assists with six.
Early Thoughts
The Sabres always bring a lot of energy when they play Toronto, and are going to be hungry for a win after their Montreal loss on Tuesday. The Leafs also have a lot of players who need to show better than they did in their last couple games, though. I feel like this game will likely be swayed by how Toronto’s second layer performs – relying on the stars to bag a few powerplay goals again could work, but they’d be in much better shape if they could get their bottom three lines to build additional layers at 5-on-5.
For me, this game is a coin toss. What we should be able to guarantee is some excitement, but how it ultimately unfolds is anyone’s guess.
