Leafs Gameday (October 6): Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Nashville Predators Preview
With the first week of excitement out of the way, the focus on the Toronto Maple Leafs now becomes a little more critical, with actual expectations beginning to form for the team and it’s players. So far, they’ve definitely looked improved over last year out of the gate, but that’s a very low bar to climb. Tonight their bar is “back to 0.500”, as they look to shake off a Saturday loss while hosting the Nashville Predators.
Fast Facts
| Puck Drop | October 6th @ 7:00 p.m. Scotiabank Arena, Toronto |
| Broadcast | TV: TSN4 (Regional) Radio: TSN 1050 Online: Sportsnet+ |
| Gameday Odds (Market Typical) | Maple Leafs -155, Predators +130 Maple Leafs -1.5 +165, Predators +1.5 -200 Goal Line 6.0 (Over -110, Under -110) |
About the Maple Leafs (1-2-0)
Gavin McKenna wasn’t at morning skate! Gavin McKenna is now at morning skate! Gavin McKenna’s rookie lap was disrupted! Gavin McKenna is too small! Gavin McKenna is being robbed of expected assists by bad finishing!
It’s a lot of noise, man. You gotta feel a little bad. A lot of it isn’t even coming from inside the house, as those who watch the Leafs in disdain have been at least as vocal about the first overall pick as those within the city, but it’s starting to creep in here too. Much has been made about finding the best way to put him in a position to succeed. Is it loading him up with Auston Matthews and Kirill Marchenko? Is it sheltering him in more of a third line role? We all seem to be in general agreeance that the second line with John Tavares and William Nylander is an imperfect fit, with all three being weaker off-the-puck, Tavares having a slower start, and Nylanders’ game having a lot of overlap with McKenna’s to create a bit of an only-one-puck sort of problem. Toronto seems intent on letting things run their course for now, so hopefully he can grab a point or two soon and get some of the flies off his back. Younger than any of the “core” guys were when they started in Toronto and with more expectations on the team itself, it’s an unenviable starting position in a lot of ways.
As for the rest of the team, we’re all expecting a hungrier effort than they showed to end the Ottawa game.
About the Predators (1-1-0)
Nashville starts their season in a somewhat similar situation to Toronto – early peaks and valleys, and not a lot of goals for, scoring just three in their first two games. Their season opener saw them give up two first-period goals to Minnesota and never catch back up, while their second game saw them give up a goal in the first minute, followed by two quick powerplay tallies in response to pull ahead, followed by 45 minutes of not a lot to talk about.
The Predators are an interesting team. The mainstream-declared winners of the 2024/25 off season never came close to those expectations, and while they had an 18-point improvement last year, still found thesmelves out of the playoff picture. There are a lot of recognizable names across the roster, but few guys you can trust to take over games or extended stretches. Some of those pleayrs may have been that once, but most of those players are now 35+. You’ve seen the discourse Toronto is having about John Tavares’ slow start and whether he’s finally starting to “pumpkin” out – their core of Josi, Stamkos, Marchessault, and O’Reilly are all on the wrong side of 30, with players like Forsberg, Skjei, and Saros all doing what they can to catch up.
I don’t really know what this team is. They’re theoeretically rebuilding, but anyone you trust to make a puck touch is at the stage of their career where they could announce their retirement plans tomorrow and you wouldn’t be too shocked. Weird spot to be in.
Projected Lineups
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Nashville Pedators |
|---|---|
| Jack Roslovic – Auston Matthews – Kirill Marchenko Gavin McKenna – John Tavares – William Nylander Easton Cowan – Nick Paul – Colton Sissons Brandon Duhaime – Teddy Blueger – Bo Groulx Jake McCabe – Chris Tanev Morgan Rielly – Darren Raddysh Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Troy Stetcher | Steven Stamkos – Ryan O’Reilly – Alex Kerfoot Filip Forsberg – Matthew Wood – Nils Hoglander Ross Colton – Mavrik Bourque – Jonathan Marchessault Jack Drury – Adam Edstrom Nicolas Hague – Roman Josi Brady Skjei – Nick Perbix William Trudeau – Adam Wilsby Jack Ahcan |
| Starting Goalie: Anthony Stolarz (1-0-0, 1.03 GAA, 0.963 SV%) Backing Up: Sergei Bobrovsky | Starting Goalie: Juuse Saros (1-1-0, 2.03 GAA, 0.933 SV%) Backing Up: Matthew Murray |
Toronto currently doesn’t have any lineup changes on tap. I wondered if maybe they would rearrange the top nine a little after a loss, or at least switch out Troy Stecher for Nick Blankenburg on the third pair, but so far there’s been nothing confirmed to that effect.
The Predators ran an 11-7 lineup last game and are currently projected to run it back today. That first line will be very familiar to Leafs fans, with two ex-Buds in O’Reilly and Kerfoot, and a guy-who-visited-the-boardroom in Stamkos. Mavrik Bourque will also be familiar as “that guy who helped the tank by scoring a hat trick for Dallas“. Matt Murray is, incredibly, not Matt Murray, but the other Matt Murray.
Last Matchup
These two teams last faceoff off just before Christmas last year, in Nashville. The Predators got the best of the matchup, shutting down one-goal leads from Toronto twice before going ahead with eleven minutes remaining in the third period. Nashville scored two empty netters to pull away. The Leafs’ scoresheet is littered with players who are no longer with the team – their first goal was scored by Nic Roy with assists from Bobby McMann and Nick Robertson, their second goal carried an assist from Matias Maccelli, and their third goal, scored in between the two empty netters, came from McMann with an asisst from Robertson.
Injuries Of Note
The Maple Leafs have no changes to their injury list. The Predators are without backup goaltender Justus Annunen, who was at one point projected to start tonight, but was instead placed on IR with an undisclosed injury.
Streaks Of Note
No one on the Leafs his hot from a production standpoint right now. The top line is generating a lot of shots (10 for Matthews, 9 for Marchenko, 6 for Roslovic through three games), but no one’s been a legitimate scoring threat.
On the cold side, Sergei Bobrovsky is sitting at a barely-better-than-last-year 0.887 save percentage so far, though I’ll give the small sample size benefit of the doubt there and point out that putting the puck in the opponent’s net has been a bigger problem for the team than keeping it out.
On Nashville’s end, Stamkos and Roman Josi lead the team with a goal and an assist a piece through two games, each getting both of their points in separate games. Saros has been red-hot between the pipes to start the year, stopping 56 of 60.
Early Thoughts
If the Leafs are to succeed this year, this needs to be the sort of game you show up hungry for. Coasting away from points against a division rival on Saturday is a poor reflection on your hockey club and while you can afford the odd loss to out-of-conference opponents, early impressions are everything, especially as your new front office seems okay with tinkering until they reach their vision.
It’s also the last home game before a tough Vegas – Colorado – Utah road trip, so if there’s a moment to tune up, it’s here. The Leafs are favoured to win this one and I can see that outcome coming to fruitition with a good effort – this Predators team is one you want to attack with speed and while Toronto aren’t an all-out rocket skates team yet, they’re better equipped for it this year. Beating Saros may be an issue, but it’d be a great time for some sticks to get hot.
