Leafs Gameday: A New Beginning
So here we are again. The preseason is behind us, a blockbuster trade gave the city one last system-shock last night, and the Maple Leafs begin their quest to rebound from their worst season in a decade tonight against their long-time rivals in Montreal. On one hand, it’s just one game in a now-expanded schedule of 84. On the other, it’s an opportunity to make an early statement on where this whole thing is headed.
Fast Facts
| Puck Drop | September 29th @ 7:00 p.m. Scotiabank Arena, Toronto |
| Broadcast | TV: Sportsnet (National), TVA Sports (French) Radio: Sportsnet 590 The FAN Online: Sportsnet+ |
| Gameday Odds (Market Typical) | Maple Leafs -110, Canadiens -110 Maple Leafs -1.5 +220, Canadiens +1.5 -270 Goal Line 6.5 (Over +100, Under -120) |
About the Maple Leafs (0-0-0)
It’s hard to say exactly what this group is going to be this year, but one thing is clear, and that’s that the Maple Leafs are looking to get away from as much of what got them to rock bottom as possible. The coaching staff and the front office have been overhauled. The opening night roster includes eight new forwards, a new big-name defenceman, and a new big-name goaltender. They even have a new Twitter hashtag! What a world.
The most exciting new piece, of course, is the one they didn’t really plan for. The beacon of light in last year’s darkest hour. In 91.5% of parallel, the Leafs don’t end up with Gavin McKenna, and instead find themselves in agony at giving up the sixth overall pick and a middle-six young forward for a defenceman they’d trade for two third-rounders before his 100th game with the team. In this world, the hockey gods gave them the lottery ball they needed to change the entire trajectory of the franchise one again.
Unlike the last time the Leafs entered a fresh forest with a fortunate first overall find, McKenna isn’t under pressure to be a saviour from Day One. Expectations are high for his future, but he can learn with some insulation. Early flashes suggest he might not need a large amount of it, but he has the option to not be relied upon.
The Leafs need a lot to click differently this year if they want to get back into the contender conversation. They need the new support forwards to bring pace and hunger. They need players like Auston Matthews and Chris Tanev to be at fuller health. They need Darren Raddysh to realize the potential they see in him, and Morgan Rielly to get a bit of his groove back. They need Sergei Bobrovsky to have a 38-year-old bounce-back like Ed Beflour did in blue and white in 2003, instead of… most 38 year old goalies. They need significant systemic improvement from a simple dump-and-chase game that felt antiquated in it’s output for the past two years.
To get all of it will be a tough task. But get at least some of it, and you’re in much better shape. Ideally, that starts tonight.
About the Canadiens (0-0-0)
Why are we talking about the Montreal Canadiens? They tried and failed to trade for Matthew Knies, and then they tried and failed to trade for Kirill Marchenko because they couldn’t offer Matthew Knies. I’m supposed to pretend this is a relevant hockey team?
I’m kidding, of course. The Habs find themselves in a similar position to where the Maple Leafs were six or seven years ago – their core pieces have broken out, the team has made it’s standings leap, and the league waits to see if they’ll make the next step. They’ve already gone farther in a single playoff run than Toronto did in any of theirs, advancing to the Eastern Conference Final last year. Someone more skeptical can rightfully point out that they weren’t a team that controlled play for much of the year and had several wins in the playoffs that felt more counter-attacky and lucky-bouncey than most teams would feel comfortable with, but with their best players being in their early-mid 20’s and largely signed to lengthy, pre-cap inflation contracts, they rightfully feel like they have a lot of time ahead of them to figure out the last miles.
For now, I wonder where this year takes them. They’re largely running back last year’s group, which had a lot of career-high shooting percentages and a lot of games wehre they were outshot. Martin St. Louis has been a beacon for vibes, but can he elevate their control of games this year? Only time will tell – I wouldn’t be surprised if they take a slight step back this season before making a truer leap in a year or two.
Projected Lineups
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Montreal Canadiens |
|---|---|
| Jack Roslovic – Auston Matthews – William Nylander Gavin McKenna – John Tavares – Kirill Marchenko Easton Cowan – Nick Paul – Colton Sissons Brandon Duhaime – Teddy Blueger – Zack MacEwen Jake McCabe – Chris Tanev Morgan Rielly – Darren Raddysh Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Troy Stetcher | Chris Kreider – Nick Suzuki – Cole Caufield Juraj Slafkovsky – Alex Newhook – Ivan Demidov Alexandre Texier – Philip Danault – Kirby Dach Zack Bolduc – Jake Evans – Josh Anderson Mike Matheson – Noah Dobson Lane Hutson – Alexandre Carrier Jayden Struble – Arber Xhekaj |
| Starting Goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky (2025/26: 27-23-1, 3.07 GAA, 0.877 SV%) Backing Up: Anthony Stolarz | Starting Goalie: Jakub Dobes (2025/26: 29-10-4, 2.78 GAA, 0.901 SV%) Backing Up: Sam Montembeault |
The Toronto forward lineup is a little in flux while we wait to find out whether Marchenko will have his work visa in time. If he does, he’s in. If he doesn’t, we’re waiting until at least tomorrow. The arrangement of those six players is also subject to change, though that’s how most seem to believe it’ll shake out to start.
Montreal’s lineup is more or less how it’s been projected since the start of the preseason. If I’m being honest, it doesn’t seem as daunting as their lofty expectations once you look at it front to back, though there are certainly high-end pieces spread across the top-six and top-four and when healthy, they’re rolling eighteen skaters that can play a real shift, and that’s not nothing.
Last Matchup
The two teams played each other a little over a week ago – twice in the same night! A split squad affair saw the Leafs’ lose twice in the span of a few minutes – a 4-1 defeat for the “A” Leafs over the “B” Habs, and a 4-3 overtime loss for the “B” Leafs over the “A” Habs. Not the best night for Toronto, but thankfully, preseason standings points don’t count for anything. You can read the recap for those games here.
Injuries Of Note
A final reminder on Toronto’s LTIR’s, as to not rub salt in the wound forever. Max Domi is out for at least a very long time. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he was out for the season, and it might be the end of his career. A lot is in flux there after back surgery complications this summer. We wish him the best in his recovery.
Elvis Merzlikins, who was acquired by the Leafs yesterday, is out for 3-5 more months according to John Chayka’s comments in today’s opening day press conference. The team will have to figure out what to do with his salary when that time comes, assuming that their current goalie depth chart of Sergei Bobrovsky, Anthony Stolarz, and Artur Akhtyamov are all game-ready and in his path. He’ll return to mention here once we get closer to availability.
Dakota Joshua is still reported as out with a “core injury”, with no clear timeline for his return, though it is presumably in the day-to-day range.
On Montreal’s end, Oliver Kapenen is day-to-day with a lower-body injury, while Kaiden Guhle is still a few weeks out following adductor muscle surgery.
Streaks Of Note
Auston Matthews and John Tavares were Toronto’s most productive skaters in the preseason, each producing a goal and three assists. Matthews also led the team in shots on goal, with ten across two games, which is a great sign for those who want to see him getting involved offensively again.
Sergei Boborovsky also had a very encouraging preseason statistically, posting a 0.920 save percentage and allowing only two goals in about a game and a half’s worth of action.
Late Hutson was Montreal’s most productive preseason skater with a goal (on his only shot!) and four assists in two games. Cole Caufield co-led Montreal in goals (3) and shots (9), while scoring two overtime winners.
Early Thoughts
This will be a very interesting game. Both teams are looking to bring very different opening statements to the table – Montreal wants to show that last year wasn’t a fluke, and Toronto is full of players who either want to show that last year *was* a fluke, or that they’re coming in to be part of the solution. You’ll also have a bunch of Leafs players looking for more immeidate revenge for eggs laid against the same team in the preseason.
I expect Montreal to be a little more “gelled” in this one given their more familiar roster, and that likely makes them the favourites to win, but stranger thigns have happend. Either way, I expect tonight to be a fun one regardless of result, as we get an early insight towards the winds of change.
Header image via @mapleleafs on X / Twitter
