The Vancouver Canucks are sitting in 28th place in the NHL, with just three wins in their last seven games. At this point, most of the fanbase, and more importantly, team management, has accepted that this is going to be another one of “those years” and are letting the proverbial plug pull itself as the end of the year nears.
Always in search of a silver lining, though, those who follow the Canucks have been in search of good news in the form of updates about their prospects. As such, we’ve been getting a lot of articles and tweets like this one from News 1130’s Rick Dhaliwal (a very solid traditional-media follow for Canucks updates):
While nothing is false about this tweet, and I don’t believe that Dhaliwal is attempting to mislead anyone with the information there, it does follow a common flaw in single-team prospect evaluation. It’s a flaw that I’m just as guilty of as everyone, and have worked to towards escaping. Simply, it’s the idea that the team you’re focusing on the most is the only one with players accomplishing things.
That’s not to say that you may as well not bother counting who does what. Especially in two of the above cases: Elias Petterson’s Draft+1 season has a very real case for being the most impressive for a non-immediate graduate ever. Petterson’s numbers leave behind the likes of Peter Forsberg, the Sedin Twins, Nicklas Backstrom, and Markus Naslund. The SHL (and former SEL) might not be the best league in Europe at the top end, but it is historically the deepest, and if you can dominate there, there’s a good chance that you’re going to be a great NHLer.
Similar goes for Jonathan Dahlen, who is having a historically great year in Allsvenskan, the second level of Swedish pro hockey with an almost as good track record for development. Those are rare-event seasons that don’t deserve to be scoffed at. In Pettersson’s case, fans should be head over heels.
The others mentioned though? That’s where it gets murky. There’s a difference between “history books” and “having a good year”, and Gaudette, Lind, and DiPietro are leaning towards the latter here. Prospect development is interesting, with many models trying to figure out what exactly it takes for a player to be a sure thing (pGPS being the public gold standard at the moment). Generally speaking, though, you’ll find that while very few have successful careers without being very good in their youth, but that having very good seasons isn’t a guarantee either. The ladder to the pros has many steps to it, and as competition gets stronger, some guys get phased out. Obviously, the ones who go on “best season we’ve seen from someone his age in decades” have a bit of a better chance.
Not to mention, there are a lot of leagues, a lot of teams, and a lot of age levels to separate players into rankings for, and 31 teams clamouring to build the best pools they can. So my theory here is this: How well can one hype up five prospects from each NHL organization this year?
Here are my caveats, before I post these tables:
- These are not rankings of teams, or made for comparing organization depth. Some pools are better than the others; the point is to show that every pool has a handful of players that you can take the used car salesman approach with
- I’ve only used this year’s numbers for these tables. Some players, as a result, don’t look as good as they should, because they’ve just come out of cold streaks, or not quite as dominant years. Take Ilya Samsonov from Washington, for example, he’s had a very good year in the KHL, but not the historically great ones for his age that the two seasons prior provided, which have solidified him as a can’t-miss prospect.
- On a similar vein to the above point, these aren’t 1-5 rankings of each team’s prospect pool. They’re just five guys that I could sell the hardest on this year’s performance, placed in their respective tables in no particular order. For example, if I wasn’t using a carbon copy of Rick’s tweet for Vancouver and you asked me for a Top-5, I’d be swapping out Michael DiPietro and one of Kole Lind or Adam Gaudette for Thatcher Demko and Olli Juolevi.
- This also isn’t a comparison of young cores in general. A lot of teams have graduated young players because they were talented enough to jump straight into the NHL in their first or second year. I had to spend a lot of time finding people for Boston, Buffalo, and Washington, for example, but those teams have a good chunk of relatively recent picks and acquisitions playing up top. Edmonton is the same, but they have Jesse Puljujarvi and some kid named Connor with the big club.
- NHL graduates are mostly avoided. I gave Nikita Scherbak to Montreal because he is a relatively recent call-up and had a great AHL season prior, but that’s the extent of my manipulation in that regard.
- Two prime-age KHLers are used here: Alexander Khokhlachev (BOS) and Nikita Gusev (VGK). Kohkhlachev is supposedly interested in returning to the NHL next year, while Gusev has been forever gossiped and in an organization just establishing a prospect pool, so they get that pass.
- Lastly, this is not made to suggest that the Canucks prospect pool is bad. It’s above the league average (but could and should be a lot better), and there are a lot of teams here where I’d reject getting all of their five players just for Petterson alone. The point is more for the players in the middle: the Lind, Gaudette, DiPietro types; that other teams have players doing those things as well, and that the same degree of hype shouldn’t be placed on them. Players in recent years with similar NCAA to Adam Gaudette this year, for example, include names like Zachary Aston-Reese, Evan Rodrigues, and Jimmy Vesey. Getting a decent third line centre would be a big coup with that in mind, but does constantly mentioning his scoring title in the same breath as a Pettersson-type drive the bar of expectation up too high?
- Similarly, for other fanbases, that your team isn’t the only one with those types of players. There are a few top prospects here, but most these guys amount to decent-percentage bets to be decent players, with a couple who might luck into becoming difference makers, and a couple more who might disappear off to European success or an early life-after-hockey.
Without further ado, look how stacked ___________’s prospect pool is! They’re killing it this year!
Anaheim Ducks
| Player |
Stat |
| Sam Steel |
1st Points, Regina WHL |
| Max Jones |
1st Goals/Game, London OHL |
| Antoine Morand |
1st Points, Acadie-Bathurst QMJHL |
| Josh Mahura |
2nd Goals, WHL Defencemen |
| Maxime Comtois |
3rd Goals, QMJHL |
Arizona Coyotes
| Player |
Stat |
| Brayden Burke |
4th Points / Pts Game, WHL |
| Tyler Steenbergen |
2nd Points / Game, WHL |
| Cam Dineen |
4th Points, OHL Defencemen |
| Dylan Strome |
6th Points / Game, AHL |
| Nick Merkley |
4th Points / Game, AHL |
Boston Bruins
| Player |
Stat |
| Ryan Donato |
1st Goals, 2018 Olympics |
| Jack Studnicka |
1st Points, OHL Oshawa |
| Trent Frederic |
2nd Goals, U20 NCAA |
| Urho Vaakanainen |
3rd Points, Liiga U20 D |
| Alex Khokhlachev |
6th Points, KHL |
Buffalo Sabres
| Player |
Stat |
| CJ Smith |
5th Points, AHL Rookie F |
| Marcus Davidsson |
2nd Points, U20 SHL |
| Brendan Guhle |
4th Points, AHL Rookie D |
| Rasmus Asplund |
3rd Points, SHL U21 |
| Casey Mittlestadt |
6th Points, U20 NCAA |
Calgary Flames
| Player |
Stat |
| Glenn Gawdin |
1st Points, WHL |
| Matthew Phillips |
5th Points, WHL |
| Eetu Tuuola |
2nd Goals, U20 Liiga |
| Andrew Mangiapane |
2nd Points/Game, AHL |
| Rasmus Andersson |
5th Points, AHL Defencemen |
Carolina Hurricanes
| Player |
Stat |
| Aleksi Saarela |
5th Goals, AHL Rookies |
| Warren Foegele |
1st Goals, AHL Rookies |
| Valentin Zykov |
1st Goals, AHL |
| Trevor Carrick |
T-3 Points, AHL U24 D |
| Jeremy Helvig |
1st SV%, OHL Starters |
Chicago Blackhawks
| Player |
Stat |
| Dylan Sikura |
4th Points, NCAA |
| Henri Jokiharju |
5th Points, WHL Defencemen |
| Matthew Highmore |
3rd Goals, AHL Rookies |
| Tim Soderlund |
T2 Goals, U20 SHL |
| Ivan Nalimov |
2nd SV%, KHL |
Colorado Avalanche
| Player |
Stat |
| Ty Lewis |
1st Points, Brandon WHL |
| Conor Timmins |
4th Points/Game, OHL |
| Adam Werner |
10th SV%, Allsvenskan |
| Shane Bowers |
3rd Goals, NCAA U20 |
| Cale Makar |
All-Star, 2018 WJC |
Columbus Blue Jackets
| Player |
Stat |
| Vitali Abramov |
2nd Points, QMJHL |
| Alex Texier |
3rd Goals, U20 Liiga |
| Kale Howarth |
2nd Points/Game, BCHL |
| Kole Sherwood |
2nd Goals, Kitchener OHL |
| Emil Bemstrom |
2nd Points/Game, SuperElit |
Dallas Stars
| Player |
Stat |
| Colton Point |
1st SV%, NCAA |
| Jason Robertson |
3rd Goals, OHL |
| Miro Heiskanen |
1st Points/Game, U24 Liiga D |
| Jake Oettinger |
4th SV%, U20 NCAA |
| Jakob Stenqvist |
1st Points, U20 Allsvenskan |
Detroit Red Wings
| Player |
Stat |
| Filip Hronek |
2nd Points, AHL Rookie D |
| Libor Sulak |
1st Points, U24 Liiga D |
| Dennis Cholowski |
8th Points, WHL Defencemen |
| Michael Rasmussen |
1st Pts/Game, Tri-City WHL |
| David Pope |
12th Goals, NCAA |
Edmonton Oilers
| Player |
Stat |
| Stuart Skinner |
4th SV%, WHL |
| Ethan Bear |
9th Goals, AHL Rookie D |
| Kailer Yamamoto |
6th Points/Game, WHL |
| Cameron Hebig |
1st Goals/Game, Saskatoon WHL |
| Kirill Maximov |
1st Points/Game, Niagara OHL |
Florida Panthers
| Player |
Stat |
| Aleksi Heponiemi |
1st Points/Game, WHL |
| Adam Mascherin |
6th in Points, OHL |
| Owen Tippett |
9th in PTS/GP, OHL |
| Henrik Borgstrom |
5th in PTS/GP, NCAA |
| Max Gilton |
4th in U20 Pts by D, NCAA |
Los Angeles Kings
| Player |
Stat |
| Kale Clague |
3rd Points, WHL Defencemen |
| Gabriel Vilardi |
2nd Points/Game, OHL |
| Jarret Anderson-Dolan |
1st Points, Spokane WHL |
| Drake Rymsha |
2nd Points, Sarnia OHL |
| Austin Strand |
3rd Goals, WHL Defencemen |
Minnesota Wild
| Player |
Stat |
| Dmitri Sokolov |
1st Goals, OHL |
| Kaapo Kahkonen |
5th SV%, Liiga |
| Kirill Kaprizov |
1st Points/Game, U24 KHL |
| Ivan Lodnia |
1st Assists, Erie OHL |
| Lous Belpedio |
T-7 Goals, NCAA Defencemen |
Montreal Canadiens
| Player |
Stat |
| Cayden Prmeau |
4th SV%, NCAA |
| Ryan Poehling |
2nd U20 Points/Game, NCAA |
| Nikita Scherbak |
2nd Points/Game, U24 AHL |
| William Bitten |
1st Assists, Hamilton OHL |
| Jake Evans |
1st Points, Notre Dame NCAA |
Nashville Predators
| Player |
Stat |
| Patrick Harper |
1st U20 Points/Game, NCAA |
| Eeli Tolvanen |
1st U20 Points, KHL |
| Dante Fabbro |
2nd U20 Points, NCAA D |
| Thomas Novak |
1st Assists, NCAA U-Minnesota |
| Rem Pitlick |
1st Points, NCAA U-Minnesota |
New Jersey Devils
| Player |
Stat |
| Colby Sissons |
4th Points, WHL Defencemen |
| Jesper Boqvist |
4th Points/Game, U20 SHL |
| Aarne Talvitie |
3rd Points, Jr A SM-Liiga |
| Joey Anderson |
USA Captain, 2018 WJC |
| Michael McLeod |
2nd Points/Game, Mississauga OHL |
New York Islanders
| Player |
Stat |
| David Quenneville |
1st Points, WHL Defencemen |
| Sebastian Aho |
8th Goals, AHL Defencemen |
| Anatoli Golyshev |
3rd Points/Game, U24 KHL |
| Otto Koivula |
3rd Points, U20 Liiga |
| Ilya Sorokin |
5th SV%, U24 KHL |
New York Rangers
| Player |
Stat |
| Ty Ronning |
2nd Goals, WHL |
| Lias Andersson |
2nd Points/Game, U20 SHL |
| Igor Shestyorkin |
6th SV%, U24 KHL |
| Filip Chytil |
5th Pts/G All-Time, Age 18 AHL F |
| Sean Day |
9th Points/Game, OHL Defencemen |
Ottawa Senators
| Player |
Stat |
| Aaron Luchuck |
1st Points, OHL |
| Logan Brown |
6th Points/Game, OHL |
| Filip Gustavsson |
4th SV%, SHL |
| Markus Nurmi |
5th Goals, U20 Liiga |
| Christian Wolanin |
1st Goals, NCAA D |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Player |
Stat |
| Carter Hart |
1st SV%, WHL |
| Morgan Frost |
3rd OHL, Points |
| Casen Twarynski |
1st Goals, Kelowna WHL |
| Wade Allison |
5th Points/Game, NCAA |
| Cooper Marody |
10th Points/Game, NCAA |
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player |
Stat |
| Daniel Sprong |
2nd Points, AHL Rookie F |
| Niclas Almari |
5th Points, U20 Liiga D |
| Sam Miletic |
6th Points, OHL |
| Jordy Bellerive |
8th Goals, WHL |
| Anthony Angello |
1st Points, NCAA Cornell |
San Jose Sharks
| Player |
Stat |
| Jadyen Habgewachs |
1st Goals, WHL |
| Antoine Bibeau |
5th SV%, AHL |
| Dyan Gambrell |
13th Points/Game, NCAA |
| Alexander Chmelevski |
1st Points, OHL Ottawa |
| Maxim Letunov |
1st Points, NCAA Uconn |
St Louis Blues
| Player |
Stat |
| Jordan Kyrou |
1st Assists, OHL |
| Robert Thomas |
8th Points/Game, OHL |
| Jordan Binnington |
3rd SV%, AHL |
| Ville Husso |
4th SV%, AHL |
| Nolan Stevens |
9th Goals, NCAA |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player |
Stat |
| Boris Katchouk |
4th Goals, OHL |
| Cal Foote |
2nd Goals, WHL Defencemen |
| Alex Barre-Boulet |
1st Points, QMJHL |
| Otto Somppi |
5th Points, QMJHL |
| Mathieu Joseph |
4th Points, AHL Rookie F |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player |
Stat |
| Andreas Johnsson |
3rd Points, AHL |
| Garret Sparks |
1st SV%, AHL Starters |
| Timothy Liljegren |
1st Pts/G All-Time, Age 18 AHL D |
| Carl Grundstrom |
2nd SHL, U21 Goals |
| Yegor Korshkov |
12th KHL, U24 Points |
Vancouver Canucks
| Player |
Stat |
| Elias Petterson |
1st Points, SHL |
| Adam Gaudette |
1st Points, NCAA |
| Jonathan Dahlen |
1st Points, Allsvenskan Timra |
| Kole Lind |
1st Points, WHL Kelowna |
| Michael DiPietro |
3rd GAA, OHL |
Vegas Golden Knights
| Player |
Stat |
| Nick Suzuki |
4th Points, OHL |
| Nicolas Hague |
2nd Points, OHL Defencemen |
| Lucas Elvenes |
4th Points, U20 SHL |
| Erik Brannstrom |
2nd Points, U20 SHL D |
| Nikita Gusev |
2nd Points, KHL |
Washington Capitals
| Player |
Stat |
| Lucas Johansen |
5th Points, AHL Rookie D |
| Axel Jonsson Fjallby |
5th Points, U20 SHL |
| Ilya Samsonov |
7th SV%, U24 KHL |
| Brian Pinho |
2nd Points, NCAA Providence |
| Damien Riat |
1st Points, U21 NLA |
Winnipeg Jets
| Player |
Stat |
| Skyler McKenzie |
5th Goals, WHL |
| Sami Niku |
1st Points, AHL Defencemen |
| Mason Appleton |
1st Points, AHL Rookie F |
| Kristian Vesalainen |
6th Goals, Liiga (1st U20 Points) |
| Jordy Stallard |
1st Points, WHL Prince Albert |
